Wednesday’s big story is $XRP ($XRP), the payments-focused cryptocurrency. Not only did a bridge linking to the $XRP Ledger experience an exploit early today, but the token price also hovers near a level that, if breached, could embolden bears.
That level is $1. Prices briefly fell to 99 cents on some exchanges on Tuesday and, while they quickly recovered, the bounce looked to have stalled near $1.02. $XRP has lagged behind bitcoin and the broader market recovery in recent days.
What’s more, open interest in $XRP futures has risen to 2.67 billion $XRP ($2.73 billion), the most since October, from 2.25 billion $XRP at the start of the month. This buildup of leverage while $XRP trades at this price points to potential volatility.
That means $XRP is more vulnerable than other major cryptocurrencies such as bitcoin $BTC$64,105.18, ether $ETH$1,909.54 and solana (SOL) to the U.S. CPI release later today. A hotter-than-forecast reading would strengthen bets on Fed interest-rate increases and drive already-buoyant Treasury yields higher, creating headwinds for risk assets.
Forecasts point to 0.1% month-on-month growth in the headline CPI for July, up from June’s –0.4% reading. The year-on-year figure is expected at 3.4%, down from 3.5%, and annual core CPI inflation is seen dropping to 2.5% from 2.6%.
According to ING, a softer-than-expected print could weaken the dollar, an outcome that could bode well for the crypto market.
In bitcoin’s case, traders are hoping the report will push the price out of its recent trading range of $62,000 to $66,000. However, the way $BTC options are currently priced suggests low expectations for CPI-driven fireworks.
Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research, said the market is pricing a post-CPI swing of just 1.3%, which is nothing out of the ordinary.
Data tracking website Laevitas made a similar observation: “7d ATM IV [implied volatility] has compressed to 29.1v on $BTC and 41.2v on $ETH even as a binary July print lands inside the weekly window, so the term structure is declining to price the event risk that sits directly on the tape,” Laevitas said on X.
The fact that expectations remain low could be just the setup for markets to be surprised into action by a potential big beat or miss in the inflation figures. Stay alert!