Bitcoin hit bottom at $59,000 marking end to the crypto winter, says Standard Chartered analyst
Summary
- Standard Chartered analyst Geoffrey Kendrick says bitcoin has likely set its cycle low at about $59,000, marking the end of the latest crypto downturn.
- Kendrick argues that heavy selling of spot bitcoin ETFs, partly to free cash for SpaceX’s blockbuster IPO, is likely to ease now that the listing has begun.
- He says a potential U.S.-Iran peace deal that could cap oil prices, along with renewed bitcoin buying by corporate treasuries and positive ETF inflows, would confirm a durable market bottom and support his view that ether will outperform bitcoin.
The cryptocurrency market reached its definitive bottom for the currency cycle, Standard Chartered Analyst Geoffrey Kendrick said in a note on Friday.
The cycle low is now locked in at $59,000 for bitcoin, a 53% drop from its Oct. 6 all-time high of $126,000, according to Kendrick.
“Winter is over. Welcome back to crypto Spring, he said.
CoinDesk data shows bitcoin touched as low as $59,375 on June 5 in the evening, around 18:00 UTC. At the time of writing, bitcoin hovered just shy of $64,000.
Kendrick, who has $4,000 ether and a $100,000 bitcoin price target by the end of this year, identified two core drivers on Friday that support this market turnaround.
First, recent weeks saw some of the sharpest spot bitcoin ETF selling since inception. Total redemptions exceeded $5.72 billion since the second week of May. He also noted that ETF holders have anecdotally been liquidating their positions to free up cash to participate in the SpaceX initial public offering (IPO).
Elon Musk’s SpaceX shares began trading on Nasdaq at around $150 on Friday and are now about 26% above their IPO price.
The intense market demand is already showing up on digital asset exchanges, such as Hyperliquid, where SpaceX’s crypto contracts recently traded with high volume and a valuation of up to 2.4 trillion.
The launch of the SpaceX IPO this Friday may bring that specific selling pressure to a close, Kendrick said.
Second, a G7-related peace deal between the U.S. and Iran, if true, could help stop oil prices from escalating. Lower oil prices would subsequently cool the rising U.S. Treasury yields, easing macro pressure on crypto markets.
To confirm that the market floor is secure, Kendrick is watching three specific metrics over the coming days. He is looking for an announcement on Monday showing that Michael Saylor’s Strategy (MSTR) purchased more bitcoin this week. He is also looking for a return to net-positive daily inflows for U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs this Friday, as international oil prices continue to fall.
The price of Brent crude fell to about $87 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate crude was around $85 a barrel as U.S. President Donald Trump spoke of a likely peace deal with Iran.
However, he later made a U-turn in a post on Truth Social, saying the deal made public was not what had been agreed and warning Tehran’s officials to quickly “get their act together.”