Bitcoin $BTC$77,596.76 is trading around $77,890 on Thursday morning, 0.76% higher since midnight UTC, recovering some of the ground lost in Wednesday’s selloff though still down 2.89% over the past week.
Gold added 0.97% to around $4,434 and silver 0.88% to $65.94, following dips from both on Wednesday, while Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.2% and S&P 500 futures 0.15%, boosted by the dollar index (DXY) which is down by 0.32% to 99.259.
Spot bitcoin ETFs recorded a $9.3 million outflow, a second consecutive day of net selling, though a fraction of Tuesday’s $239 million.
Altcoins are broadly higher, with the altcoin season index at 35/100 and gains concentrated in the likes of lighter ($LIT) and arbitrum $ARB$0.1396, the latter of which remains uplifted by revenue derived from its deal with Robinhood Chain.
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Derivatives positioning
- Sentiment turns neutral: The 24-hour long-short taker volume ratio in crypto futures stands in balance, a shift from bearish a day earlier. Cumulative open interest remains in stasis near $136 billion, with trading volume down 7% to $187 billion.
- $ARB open interest hits record: Arbitrum’s $ARB is again the best-performing top-100 coin of the past 24 hours. Its open interest has increased nearly 10% to 1.58 billion $ARB, the highest on record, according to data source Coinglass. The rest of the market’s profile looks as bullish as it did Tuesday, with the 24-hour OI-adjusted cumulative volume delta and annualized perpetual funding rates both positive.
- $LIT rally lacks derivatives backing: Lighter DEX’s $LIT token is the second-best performer of the past 24 hours, with the spot price trading at a record $2.85. Unlike $ARB, though, there’s little participation in futures, where open interest has continued to drop even as the price rises. That divergence suggests the move is either driven entirely by spot demand, or could unwind quickly given the apparent absence of a derivatives bid.
- $BTC, $ETH positioning stays light: Positioning in $BTC and $ETH futures remains light, with open interest hovering near recently hit multi-week lows.
- Bulls lead major token futures: Broadly speaking, bulls appear to be leading price action in futures tied to major tokens, including bitcoin and ether. That’s evident in their positive 24-hour OI-adjusted CVDs, a sign that more longs are being executed at market orders rather than passive limit orders, a positive signal for those expecting continued price appreciation.
- $TRX shorts ease: $TRX’s annualized perpetual funding rate now hovers around -23%, versus -80% earlier this week. While the overall bias remains bearish, the easing in short positioning reduces the risk of a sudden short squeeze that crowded, overheated shorts tend to invite.
- Volatility signals calm: Bitcoin’s and ether’s 30-day implied volatility indices remain calm, supporting continued bullish price action in spot markets and pointing to little fear in the options market.
- Options flow stays bullish for $BTC: In Deribit-listed options, higher-strike calls at $82,000 and $84,000 continue to top the 24-hour volume rankings, reflecting a bullish bias. Still, $BTC’s seven-day skew, which gauges the price differential between calls and puts, has pulled back from recent highs. Ether’s flow has been more mixed.
Token talk
- Pons (PONS) leads the altcoin market on Thursday, climbing 30.85% over 24 hours to 50 cents, up 318.72% over the week. The launchpad is the largest revenue generator on Robinhood Chain and routes around 80% of protocol revenue into buying back and burning its own token, a more direct value accrual mechanism than most of the tokens riding the same theme.
- Arbitrum $ARB$0.1396 extended its run for a third session, up 16.77% over 24 hours to 13 cents, taking its market cap past $916 million. Daily tading volume remains inflated at $486 million, more than nine times last week’s daily total when it averaged around $50 million per day.
- Uniswap ($UNI) reversed sharply, falling 8.62% over 24 hours to $5.75 and making it the day’s biggest large-cap loser, though it holds a 29.11% gain over the past week. $UNI had been among the strongest DeFi performers of the rally before Thursday’s unwind.
- Privacy coin monero (XMR) continued its hot streak, rising 4.30% since midnight to around $515, with pump.fun up 4.96% to $0.004296 while $LIT also caught a bid, increasing 3.13% to $3.92.
- Bittensor (TAO) gained 2.33% since midnight to $222.31, though it remains well below the $247 it traded at a week ago.
Crypto Markets Today Related Assets Bitcoin$77,596.761.23% Arbitrum$0.1325.98%
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